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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 12, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

San Jose Sharks 3, Phoenix Coyotes 1

Away

San Jose Sharks

3

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.

PHX winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS21211208332
PHX01301317133

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:24SJSPatrick MarleauSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:06SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Dany Heatley, Dan Boyle · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
  3. P2 12:49SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–0
  4. P3 11:50PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Sami Lepisto, Petr Prucha · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 0:50SJSDevin Setoguchi: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P1 7:18SJSDan Boyle: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 11:14SJSJody Shelley: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 17:40PHXJim Vandermeer: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 5:54PHXZbynek Michalek: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 8:22SJSJay Leach: Cross checking2 min
  7. P2 15:00SJSJoe Thornton: Boarding2 min
  8. P2 16:35SJSRob Blake: Elbowing2 min
  9. P2 16:48PHXScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 18:16SJSDan Boyle: High sticking2 min
  11. P2 18:16PHXShane Doan: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 4:23SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 9:00PHXShane Doan: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Lombardi
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSPHX
32Shots on goal33
3.6Expected goals2.9
50Shot attempts58
29Faceoffs won31
4Power plays7
16Penalty minutes10
21Hits24
14Blocked shots10
1Giveaways11
4Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 2.9 xGSJS 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1030 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.74 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.

PHX winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).