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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 13, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Vancouver Canucks 2, Minnesota Wild 5

Away

Vancouver Canucks

2

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.

MIN winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN11211405231
MIN2120436522

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:58MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Guillaume Latendresse, Nick Schultz · Deflected, 0.19 xG0–1
  2. P1 3:32MINMikko KoivuAssists: Antti Miettinen · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P1 18:12VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Mason Raymond, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
  4. P2 15:43VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Sami Salo, Mikael Samuelsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P3 1:08MINAntti MiettinenPPGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
  6. P3 7:50MINOwen NolanAssists: Eric Belanger · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
  7. P3 9:32MINAntti MiettinenUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (21)
  1. P1 7:58VANTanner Glass: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 16:16MINOwen Nolan: Boarding2 min · PPG
  3. P2 1:59VANMikael Samuelsson: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 2:52MINKim Johnsson: Elbowing2 min
  5. P2 7:43MINDerek Boogaard: Interference2 min
  6. P2 14:26MINDerek Boogaard: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 14:26VANDarcy Hordichuk: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 16:18MINMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min
  9. P2 19:39VANRick Rypien: Tripping2 min · PPG
  10. P3 0:26MINMartin Havlat: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 0:40VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 11:11VANDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 11:11MINDerek Boogaard: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 11:11VANDarcy Hordichuk: Misconduct10 min
  15. P3 11:28MINJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 11:28VANAlexandre Bolduc: Fighting5 min
  17. P3 14:54MINShane Hnidy: Fighting5 min
  18. P3 14:54VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
  19. P3 15:23VANAlexandre Burrows: High sticking2 min
  20. P3 0:00MINDerek Boogaard: Cross checking2 min
  21. P3 0:00VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANMIN
31Shots on goal22
1.3Expected goals2.4
54Shot attempts46
35Faceoffs won37
4Power plays5
39Penalty minutes29
22Hits22
13Blocked shots15
7Giveaways6
0Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.4 xGVAN 1.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #335 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.39 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.

MIN winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).