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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 13, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Washington Capitals 5, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)

Away

Washington Capitals

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Florida Panthers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.

FLA winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
WSH01328214022537
FLA2921006052430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:44FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Stephen Weiss, Nathan Horton · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:11FLADominic MooreAssists: Kamil Kreps, Jordan Leopold · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 0:18WSHJason ChimeraUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P2 4:04FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Bryan McCabe, Michael Frolik · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P2 9:49FLAGregory CampbellAssists: Victor Oreskovich, Dennis Seidenberg · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–4
  6. P2 16:12WSHBrian PothierAssists: Brendan Morrison, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
  7. P3 0:27WSHAlex OvechkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
  8. P3 12:25WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. FLA Rostislav Olesz stopped
  2. 2. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
  3. 3. FLA Steve Reinprecht stopped
  4. 4. WSH Alexander Semin stopped
  5. 5. FLA Nathan Horton stopped
  6. 6. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
  7. 7. FLA Stephen Weiss scored
  8. 8. WSH Brendan Morrison scored
  9. 9. FLA Michael Frolik scored
  10. 10. WSH Brooks Laich scored
  11. 11. FLA Cory Stillman stopped
  12. 12. FLA Cory Stillman stopped
  13. 13. WSH Tomas Fleischmann stopped
Penalties (6)
  1. P2 3:16WSHDavid Steckel: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 18:32FLAGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 18:32WSHJason Chimera: Fighting5 min
  4. P3 1:27WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 3:49FLADennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
  6. OT 4:10WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Chimera
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHFLA
37Shots on goal30
3.3Expected goals2.7
78Shot attempts54
26Faceoffs won27
1Power plays3
11Penalty minutes7
20Hits29
8Blocked shots18
2Giveaways2
3Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.7 xGWSH 3.3 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 91/100 · #87 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.85 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 4% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.

FLA winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).