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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 13, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Calgary Flames 1

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.

CGY winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT1811415327
CGY010112016138

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:52PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Mark Eaton · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P2 9:39CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Nigel Dawes, Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 10:52PITBill GuerinPPGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Alex Goligoski · Deflected, 0.23 xG2–1
  4. P3 18:20PITTyler KennedyAssists: Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 1:27PITAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 6:49PITEric Godard: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 6:31CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min · PPG
  4. P2 6:31PITEric Godard: Fighting5 min · PPG
  5. P2 7:52PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 9:57CGYOlli Jokinen: Holding2 min
  7. P2 11:18CGYDavid Moss: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 15:16CGYRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 18:39CGYNigel Dawes: Holding2 min
  10. P3 5:03PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 10:22PITSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 18:49CGYRene Bourque: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Jokinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITCGY
27Shots on goal38
2.2Expected goals4.6
45Shot attempts72
27Faceoffs won30
5Power plays5
15Penalty minutes15
19Hits16
13Blocked shots12
10Giveaways10
8Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 4.6 xGPIT 2.2 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 38/100 · #771 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.29 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.

CGY winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).