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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 13, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Boston Bruins 3, Anaheim Ducks 4

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.

ANA winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS0936015330
ANA11317212432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:14ANADan SextonPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:00BOSZdeno CharaAssists: David Krejci, Michael Ryder · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 7:08BOSMatt HunwickAssists: Mark Recchi, Marco Sturm · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
  4. P2 11:47ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Petteri Nokelainen, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
  5. P2 13:49BOSMarco SturmAssists: Mark Recchi, Miroslav Satan · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–2
  6. P3 1:59ANARyan GetzlafAssists: James Wisniewski, Todd Marchant · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
  7. P3 8:07ANASteve EmingerGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Saku Koivu · Tip-in, 0.35 xG3–4
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 4:11ANATroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 4:11BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 13:42BOSMatt Hunwick: Interference2 min
  4. P1 17:26BOSVladimir Sobotka: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P1 19:16ANAKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 19:16BOSByron Bitz: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 9:49ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 9:49BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 9:49ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 9:49ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 9:49BOSShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 9:49BOSShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 14:44BOSDennis Wideman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  14. P2 19:43ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
  15. P3 15:14BOSMiroslav Satan: High sticking2 min
  16. P3 18:48ANAKyle Chipchura: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Begin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSANA
30Shots on goal32
3.1Expected goals3.3
53Shot attempts48
17Faceoffs won29
2Power plays4
24Penalty minutes20
30Hits34
7Blocked shots9
7Giveaways6
6Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.3 xGBOS 3.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANABOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #241 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.02 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.

ANA winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).