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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 14, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Philadelphia Flyers 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 4

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

0

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.

TOR winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI01201106029
TOR0921317429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 8:44TORTyler BozakGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Ian White · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P2 19:19TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P3 5:54TORLuke SchennAssists: Matt Stajan, Jay Rosehill · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 5:34PHIBlair Betts: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 10:16TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 12:03PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
  4. P1 15:47TORLee Stempniak: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 18:21TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 2:22PHIDaniel Carcillo: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 3:02PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Carter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHITOR
29Shots on goal29
2.0Expected goals3.1
48Shot attempts57
20Faceoffs won25
4Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
20Hits16
15Blocked shots12
9Giveaways9
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.1 xGPHI 2.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 8/100 · #1134 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.70 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.

TOR winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).