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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 14, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Buffalo Sabres 2, Atlanta Thrashers 1 (OT)

Away

Buffalo Sabres

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 55% of the time.

ATL winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BUF08150700220
ATL0141130400131

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 3:00BUFPatrick KaletaAssists: Toni Lydman, Clarke MacArthur · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 16:42ATLIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Vyacheslav Kozlov, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 4:34BUFHenrik Tallinder: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 10:48ATLChristoph Schubert: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 11:47ATLRich Peverley: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 16:17BUFToni Lydman: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 19:22BUFPaul Gaustad: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 5:37ATLZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 6:42BUFChris Butler: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 9:21BUFTim Kennedy: High sticking2 min
  9. P2 15:24BUFChris Butler: High sticking2 min · PPG
  10. P2 19:26ATLChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 3:28BUFHenrik Tallinder: Head butting2 min
  12. P3 3:46ATLNik Antropov: Interference2 min
  13. P3 7:54ATLNik Antropov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  14. P3 7:54BUFTim Kennedy: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Roy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFATL
20Shots on goal31
2.1Expected goals2.3
32Shot attempts52
21Faceoffs won29
7Power plays7
16Penalty minutes12
13Hits10
11Blocked shots5
3Giveaways4
10Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 2.3 xGBUF 2.1 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 45/100 · #668 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.45 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 55% of the time.

ATL winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).