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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 14, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Dallas Stars 3, Montréal Canadiens 5

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.

MTL winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL213111012336
MTL1921227528

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:25DALToby PetersenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:44MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P1 15:08DALSteve OttPPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Brad Richards · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–1
  4. P2 2:51MTLGeorges LaraqueAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Paul Mara · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
  5. P2 6:44MTLBenoit PouliotUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P2 14:55DALMike ModanoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
  7. P3 7:14MTLBrian GiontaPPGWGAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Glen Metropolit · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–4
  8. P3 16:41MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Carey Price · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 11:37DALKrys Barch: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 13:52MTLRoman Hamrlik: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P3 5:32DALKarlis Skrastins: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P3 8:01MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
  5. P3 9:26MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 9:26DALSteve Ott: Boarding2 min
  7. P3 10:38MTLGlen Metropolit: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALMTL
36Shots on goal28
2.1Expected goals2.6
65Shot attempts52
24Faceoffs won28
3Power plays2
6Penalty minutes8
20Hits22
16Blocked shots19
9Giveaways12
1Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.6 xGDAL 2.1 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 77/100 · #256 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.83 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.

MTL winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).