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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 14, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Minnesota Wild 0, St. Louis Blues 1

Away

Minnesota Wild

0

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.

STL winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN040509018
STL01801019137

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 0:26STLT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
Penalties (9)
  1. P2 3:22STLDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 5:57STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min
  3. P2 11:26MINAndrew Brunette: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 7:59MINDerek Boogaard: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 7:59STLT.J. Oshie: Holding2 min
  6. P3 7:59MINJames Sheppard: Misconduct10 min
  7. P3 12:18STLEric Brewer: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 15:45STLAlexander Steen: Interference2 min
  9. P3 15:45MINCal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Backes
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINSTL
18Shots on goal37
1.5Expected goals2.6
39Shot attempts59
31Faceoffs won31
3Power plays1
16Penalty minutes10
20Hits22
12Blocked shots13
6Giveaways5
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.6 xGMIN 1.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 9/100 · #1123 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.72 · 1 goal in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.

STL winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).