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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 14, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Edmonton Oilers 2

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.

EDM winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT03014314331
EDM04218013235

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:34EDMAndrew CoglianoPPAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan, Lubomir Visnovsky · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
  2. P2 11:53EDMLubomir VisnovskyPPAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
  3. P3 3:18PITTyler KennedyAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P3 6:48PITMatt CookePPAssists: Jordan Staal, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–2
  5. P3 10:30PITPascal DupuisGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Matt Cooke · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 10:34PITJordan Staal: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 19:48PITCraig Adams: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 19:48PITEvgeni Malkin: Charging2 min
  4. P2 10:01PITMike Rupp: Boarding2 min · PPG
  5. P2 13:52EDMLadislav Smid: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 19:35EDMRobert Nilsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  7. P2 19:35PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 5:07EDMRyan Stone: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Potulny won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITEDM
31Shots on goal35
2.9Expected goals4.0
68Shot attempts61
25Faceoffs won36
2Power plays4
10Penalty minutes6
13Hits11
11Blocked shots22
21Giveaways17
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 4.0 xGPIT 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 65/100 · #424 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.50 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 8% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.

EDM winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).