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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 15, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Washington Capitals 6

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.

WSH winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR0141708129
WSH282927624

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:49WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:51WSHEric FehrGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Jason Chimera · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:03WSHMike KnubleAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–3
  4. P2 6:48WSHMike KnublePPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–4
  5. P2 18:37TORTomas KaberlePPAssists: Phil Kessel, Lee Stempniak · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
  6. P3 6:47WSHTomas FleischmannPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–5
  7. P3 11:06WSHTom PotiAssists: Alexander Semin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
Penalties (22)
  1. P1 4:29WSHTom Poti: Delaying game2 min
  2. P1 6:36WSHNicklas Backstrom: Boarding2 min
  3. P2 5:08TORJay Rosehill: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 9:41TORVesa Toskala: Delaying game2 min
  5. P2 10:21WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 17:27WSHEric Fehr: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 19:25TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 6:19TORLee Stempniak: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P3 8:52WSHMike Green: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 14:00WSHShaone Morrisonn: Instigator2 min
  11. P3 14:00WSHShaone Morrisonn: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 14:00WSHShaone Morrisonn: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 14:00TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 14:00TORColton Orr: Interference2 min
  15. P3 14:00TORJamal Mayers: Cross checking2 min
  16. P3 15:29WSHMike Knuble: Too many men on the ice2 min
  17. P3 17:22TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
  18. P3 17:22WSHJason Chimera: Instigator2 min
  19. P3 17:22WSHJason Chimera: Fighting5 min
  20. P3 17:22WSHJason Chimera: Game misconduct10 min
  21. P3 17:48WSHBoyd Gordon: Tripping2 min
  22. P3 0:00TORJason Blake: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORWSH
29Shots on goal24
2.5Expected goals2.5
55Shot attempts61
31Faceoffs won24
8Power plays5
24Penalty minutes48
21Hits22
25Blocked shots14
5Giveaways9
2Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 2.5 xGTOR 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1057 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.55 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.

WSH winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).