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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 15, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Nashville Predators 1, Calgary Flames 0

Away

Nashville Predators

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.

CGY winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH0100714121
CGY060808022

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 13:38NSHPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 2:11CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:11NSHWade Belak: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 11:54NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 11:16CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
  5. P2 13:42NSHDan Ellis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 15:52CGYRene Bourque: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 1:55CGYOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 2:52NSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHCGY
21Shots on goal22
2.7Expected goals1.6
48Shot attempts42
25Faceoffs won34
3Power plays3
11Penalty minutes11
12Hits18
10Blocked shots12
12Giveaways15
6Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 1.6 xGNSH 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 11/100 · #1087 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.87 · 1 goal in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.

CGY winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).