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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 16, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Detroit Red Wings 2, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)

Away

Detroit Red Wings

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Dallas Stars

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.

DAL winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DET2709011010228
DAL01117111011330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:10DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P1 9:30DETBrian RafalskiPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
  3. P2 2:37DALBrad RichardsPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P3 3:53DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Tom Wandell, Krys Barch · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. DAL James Neal stopped
  2. 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
  3. 3. DAL Brad Richards stopped
  4. 4. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
  5. 5. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
  6. 6. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
  7. 7. DAL Mike Modano stopped
  8. 8. DET Valtteri Filppula stopped
  9. 9. DAL Stephane Robidas stopped
  10. 10. DET Daniel Cleary stopped
  11. 11. DAL Steve Ott scored
  12. 12. DET Patrick Eaves stopped
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 8:38DALMike Modano: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P2 0:55DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  3. P2 15:31DETHenrik Zetterberg: Slashing2 min
  4. P3 0:59DETPatrick Eaves: Delaying game2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Wandell
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETDAL
28Shots on goal30
2.7Expected goals2.3
58Shot attempts56
25Faceoffs won17
1Power plays3
6Penalty minutes2
40Hits44
13Blocked shots13
7Giveaways13
6Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 2.3 xGDET 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 65/100 · #421 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.53 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 20% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.

DAL winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).