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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 16, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

New Jersey Devils 1, Colorado Avalanche 3

Away

New Jersey Devils

1

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.

COL winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD09014115138
COL2140816328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:17COLChris StewartAssists: Paul Stastny, Wojtek Wolski · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:32COLTJ GaliardiGWGAssists: John-Michael Liles, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P3 1:55NJDRob NiedermayerAssists: Jay Pandolfo, Colin White · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:47COLWojtek WolskiENAssists: Chris Stewart, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–3
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 2:24COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:24NJDAndrew Peters: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 12:20NJDDean McAmmond: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 17:03COLBrett Clark: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 18:25NJDRob Niedermayer: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P2 3:44COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 3:44NJDMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 13:13COLMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 13:13NJDRod Pelley: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 13:53COLScott Hannan: Interference2 min
  11. P2 15:55COLKyle Quincey: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 5:20NJDAndrew Peters: Boarding2 min
  13. P3 17:15COLCody McLeod: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDCOL
38Shots on goal28
2.4Expected goals3.0
70Shot attempts44
25Faceoffs won28
4Power plays3
21Penalty minutes23
15Hits17
10Blocked shots15
7Giveaways5
9Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.0 xGNJD 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1011 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.88 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.

COL winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).