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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 16, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Boston Bruins 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Los Angeles Kings

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.

LAK winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS172807020324
LAK1909213032434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:42LAKJarret StollAssists: Scott Parse, Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:20BOSMiroslav SatanAssists: Milan Lucic, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 10:53BOSBlake WheelerAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P2 11:04BOSMichael RyderAssists: Blake Wheeler, Johnny Boychuk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
  5. P3 10:32LAKDustin BrownAssists: Alex Frolov, Michal Handzus · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
  6. P3 12:54LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
  2. 2. BOS David Krejci stopped
  3. 3. LAK Jack Johnson stopped
  4. 4. BOS Miroslav Satan stopped
  5. 5. LAK Dustin Brown scored
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 2:49BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:49LAKBrandon Segal: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 11:51LAKRaitis Ivanans: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 11:51BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 4:18LAKSean O'Donnell: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 6:32BOSJohnny Boychuk: Interference2 min
  7. P2 16:31BOSMark Stuart: Holding2 min
  8. P2 18:50BOSTrent Whitfield: Interference2 min
  9. P2 19:38BOSDerek Morris: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 1:00BOSMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Recchi
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSLAK
24Shots on goal34
2.2Expected goals2.5
51Shot attempts66
28Faceoffs won35
1Power plays5
20Penalty minutes12
30Hits40
15Blocked shots13
12Giveaways14
3Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 2.5 xGBOS 2.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 80/100 · #212 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.00 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 5% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +34 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.

LAK winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).