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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 16, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Ottawa Senators 4, Montréal Canadiens 2

Away

Ottawa Senators

4

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.

MTL winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT1721417428
MTL112110010232

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:26OTTZack SmithSHAssists: Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:49MTLBenoit PouliotAssists: Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:05MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Jaroslav Spacek · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P2 3:45OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Matt Carkner, Mike Fisher · Backhand, 0.33 xG2–2
  5. P2 5:07OTTChris PhillipsGWGAssists: Alex Kovalev · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:34OTTMike FisherENAssists: Chris Kelly, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.59 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 10:40OTTMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 13:52OTTJarkko Ruutu: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 19:56OTTMike Fisher: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 6:53OTTAnton Volchenkov: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 9:24OTTAlex Kovalev: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 3:03MTLMatt D'Agostini: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 12:52MTLBenoit Pouliot: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 16:21OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTMTL
28Shots on goal32
2.2Expected goals3.2
54Shot attempts67
28Faceoffs won34
2Power plays6
12Penalty minutes4
14Hits13
24Blocked shots14
12Giveaways30
4Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.2 xGOTT 2.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #602 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.59 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.

MTL winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).