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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 16, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Atlanta Thrashers 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

5

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 58% of the time.

CAR winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL114213210537
CAR110010212332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:29ATLZach BogosianAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Rich Peverley · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:54CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
  3. P2 14:33ATLJim SlaterAssists: Bryan Little, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P2 15:45ATLRich PeverleyAssists: Eric Boulton, Vyacheslav Kozlov · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
  5. P3 7:59CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Eric Staal, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
  6. P3 9:09CARRay WhitneyAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.22 xG3–3
  7. P3 9:53ATLIlya KovalchukGWGAssists: Toby Enstrom, Nik Antropov · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
  8. P3 19:36ATLNik AntropovENAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Jim Slater · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 0:07CARJoni Pitkanen: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 18:01ATLChristoph Schubert: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P1 19:44CARAndrew Alberts: Holding2 min
  4. P2 0:19ATLVyacheslav Kozlov: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 8:06ATLVyacheslav Kozlov: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
  6. P2 8:29CARJoni Pitkanen: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 6:02ATLRich Peverley: Slashing2 min · PPG
  8. P3 7:02ATLBoris Valabik: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Brind'Amour won the faceoff against Slater
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLCAR
37Shots on goal32
4.1Expected goals3.6
66Shot attempts72
35Faceoffs won37
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
28Hits31
22Blocked shots15
2Giveaways4
3Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.6 xGATL 4.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #161 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.93 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 58% of the time.

CAR winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).