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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 16, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

New York Rangers 1, St. Louis Blues 4

Away

New York Rangers

1

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.

STL winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR0517010122
STL1807310425

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:07STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Keith Tkachuk, Andy McDonald · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P2 7:37NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Aaron Voros · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P3 0:45STLRoman PolakGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Jay McClement · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–2
  4. P3 8:31STLAlexander SteenAssists: Roman Polak, Barret Jackman · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:47STLDavid BackesENAssists: T.J. Oshie, Keith Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 3:27NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 14:01NYRWade Redden: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 18:12NYRArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 10:13STLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
  5. P3 5:09NYRRyan Callahan: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 12:29STLMike Weaver: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Christensen won the faceoff against McClement
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRSTL
22Shots on goal25
2.3Expected goals2.5
51Shot attempts50
22Faceoffs won29
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
27Hits23
12Blocked shots14
5Giveaways9
9Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.5 xGNYR 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 31/100 · #859 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.04 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.

STL winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).