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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 16, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Minnesota Wild 4, Phoenix Coyotes 6

Away

Minnesota Wild

4

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.

PHX winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN0319310422
PHX21308412633

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:45PHXPetr PruchaAssists: Martin Hanzal, Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:05PHXShane DoanAssists: Daniel Winnik, Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P2 17:35MINGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
  4. P3 1:59PHXAdrian AucoinPPAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P3 8:32PHXPetr PruchaAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
  6. P3 9:50PHXVernon FiddlerSHGWGAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
  7. P3 10:36MINGuillaume LatendressePPAssists: Owen Nolan, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
  8. P3 11:27MINOwen NolanPPAssists: Eric Belanger, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
  9. P3 14:43MINGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Martin Havlat, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
  10. P3 19:00PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Petr Prucha, Ilya Bryzgalov · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–6
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 17:02MINAntti Miettinen: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 18:18PHXPetr Prucha: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P1 18:18MINKyle Brodziak: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 3:23MINMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min
  5. P2 9:53MINDerek Boogaard: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 1:17MINGreg Zanon: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 5:48MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 5:53PHXScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 9:23PHXKeith Yandle: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 11:19PHXScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Belanger
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINPHX
22Shots on goal33
1.9Expected goals3.3
48Shot attempts64
34Faceoffs won26
3Power plays5
12Penalty minutes8
21Hits18
22Blocked shots10
1Giveaways1
1Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 3.3 xGMIN 1.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 91/100 · #96 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.08 · 9 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.

PHX winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).