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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 17, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Philadelphia Flyers 3, Washington Capitals 5

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.

WSH winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI29012112333
WSH281925522

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:03PHIJeff CarterPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P1 7:49WSHMike KnubleAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Poti · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P1 9:16PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Arron Asham · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P1 13:28WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–2
  5. P2 7:05WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Brooks Laich, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–3
  6. P3 4:56WSHBrooks LaichSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–4
  7. P3 15:48WSHAlex OvechkinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–5
  8. P3 19:32PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Mike Richards, Simon Gagne · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 5:03WSHBrendan Morrison: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 4:44WSHTyler Sloan: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 4:44PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 6:57PHIJeff Carter: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P2 15:33WSHJeff Schultz: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 3:36WSHTyler Sloan: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 6:08WSHShaone Morrisonn: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 17:48WSHTom Poti: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Carter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIWSH
33Shots on goal22
3.2Expected goals3.0
71Shot attempts46
30Faceoffs won35
5Power plays1
4Penalty minutes12
34Hits24
17Blocked shots18
13Giveaways11
7Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 3.0 xGPHI 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 66/100 · #406 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.22 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 38% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.

WSH winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).