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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 17, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Chicago Blackhawks 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Detroit Red Wings

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.

DET winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CHI2131509023429
DET110112112042338

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:55CHITroy BrouwerAssists: Cam Barker, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:45CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Brian Campbell, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
  3. P1 19:11DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P2 8:45DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Brian Rafalski · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P2 11:10CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Duncan Keith, Andrew Ladd · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
  6. P3 10:10DETPatrick EavesAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Kris Draper · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
  2. 2. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
  3. 3. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
  4. 4. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
  5. 5. DET Todd Bertuzzi scored
  6. 6. CHI Marian Hossa scored
  7. 7. DET Daniel Cleary stopped
  8. 8. CHI Patrick Sharp scored
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 3:48DETDerek Meech: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 11:09DETBrad Stuart: Interference2 min
  3. P1 14:10DETPatrick Eaves: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 19:17CHIKris Versteeg: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 19:17DETPatrick Eaves: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 19:41DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference2 min
  7. P2 3:39CHIColin Fraser: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 5:58CHIBrent Seabrook: Holding2 min
  9. P2 8:11CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Toews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIDET
29Shots on goal38
2.5Expected goals3.2
58Shot attempts67
34Faceoffs won26
4Power plays3
11Penalty minutes13
20Hits35
16Blocked shots13
7Giveaways8
11Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.2 xGCHI 2.5 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #178 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.08 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.

DET winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).