Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 17, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Calgary Flames 4, Anaheim Ducks 5

Away

Calgary Flames

4

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.

ANA winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY21028019437
ANA3120727526

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:05CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Robyn Regehr, Dion Phaneuf · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:40ANADan SextonPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Scott Niedermayer · Tip-in, 0.28 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:59ANAEvgeny ArtyukhinAssists: Sheldon Brookbank, Jonas Hiller · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P1 17:31ANATroy BodieAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Todd Marchant · Tip-in, 0.35 xG1–3
  5. P1 19:44CGYJamie LundmarkAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jarome Iginla · Slap, 0.15 xG2–3
  6. P2 3:56CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Craig Conroy, Curtis Glencross · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
  7. P2 9:19CGYCurtis GlencrossUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
  8. P3 7:10ANACorey PerryAssists: Matt Beleskey, Sheldon Brookbank · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
  9. P3 12:43ANABobby RyanGWGAssists: Dan Sexton, Scott Niedermayer · Snap, 0.04 xG4–5
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 6:14ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 6:14CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min · PPG
  3. P1 6:49CGYDaymond Langkow: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 6:49ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
  5. P1 7:34CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
  6. P1 7:34ANABobby Ryan: Misconduct10 min
  7. P1 7:34CGYOlli Jokinen: Misconduct10 min
  8. P1 13:13CGYBrian McGrattan: Interference2 min
  9. P1 19:01ANAKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
  10. P1 19:01CGYEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 1:49CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
  12. P2 13:09ANAEvgeny Artyukhin: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 9:03ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
  14. P3 19:00ANACorey Perry: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Chipchura
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYANA
37Shots on goal26
3.3Expected goals2.9
61Shot attempts55
28Faceoffs won29
3Power plays3
28Penalty minutes28
21Hits29
14Blocked shots12
12Giveaways11
5Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 2.9 xGCGY 3.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANACGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 94/100 · #55 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.27 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.

ANA winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).