Skip to content
Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 18, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Ottawa Senators 5, Boston Bruins 1

Away

Ottawa Senators

5

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.

BOS winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT23211112526
BOS0501117123

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:39OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Mike Fisher · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:24OTTDaniel AlfredssonGWGAssists: Mike Fisher, Chris Phillips · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P2 10:04OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Filip Kuba, Mike Fisher · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–0
  4. P2 13:14OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Filip Kuba, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.05 xG4–0
  5. P3 4:23BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.12 xG4–1
  6. P3 11:05OTTJonathan CheechooUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 9:27BOSMark Stuart: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 2:43OTTAnton Volchenkov: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 6:02BOSJohnny Boychuk: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 11:56BOSMark Recchi: Elbowing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 11:56BOSMark Recchi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P2 16:04OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 12:56BOSMark Stuart: Interference2 min
  8. P3 13:59BOSDerek Morris: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Whitfield
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTBOS
26Shots on goal23
2.6Expected goals1.4
46Shot attempts38
25Faceoffs won32
6Power plays2
4Penalty minutes12
21Hits27
11Blocked shots13
6Giveaways3
8Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 1.4 xGOTT 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1039 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.67 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.

BOS winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).