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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 18, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Atlanta Thrashers 0, Florida Panthers 1

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

0

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 58% of the time.

FLA winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL0805013026
FLA0111904124

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:18FLAGregory CampbellGWGAssists: Jason Garrison, Kamil Kreps · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 9:44FLARostislav Olesz: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P1 15:24ATLZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 19:30ATLMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 7:59ATLVyacheslav Kozlov: Interference2 min
  5. P2 13:14ATLEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 13:30FLAKeith Ballard: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 18:41FLADennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Kreps
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLFLA
26Shots on goal24
2.8Expected goals2.3
63Shot attempts45
21Faceoffs won26
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
18Hits23
8Blocked shots21
3Giveaways3
4Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.3 xGATL 2.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 10/100 · #1107 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.76 · 1 goal in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 58% of the time.

FLA winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).