Skip to content
Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 18, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Minnesota Wild 3, Dallas Stars 4

Away

Minnesota Wild

3

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.

DAL winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN0611227325
DAL1939011429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:57DALTom WandellAssists: Fabian Brunnstrom, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:02DALMike ModanoPPAssists: Brad Richards, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
  3. P2 7:42DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Brad Richards, James Neal · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–3
  4. P2 13:37DALMatt NiskanenGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
  5. P2 15:03MINAntti MiettinenPPAssists: Martin Havlat, Marek Zidlicky · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–4
  6. P3 12:36MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Owen Nolan, Eric Belanger · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
  7. P3 15:00MINMikko KoivuAssists: Antti Miettinen, Andrew Brunette · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 9:37MINDerek Boogaard: Roughing2 min
  2. P2 4:34MINPetr Sykora: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 13:55DALMark Fistric: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 17:30MINGreg Zanon: Delaying game2 min
  5. P2 19:10DALSteve Ott: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P2 19:10DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 19:10MINJosh Harding: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 5:07DALKarlis Skrastins: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 6:31MINMartin Havlat: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Wandell won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINDAL
25Shots on goal29
2.3Expected goals3.6
51Shot attempts51
28Faceoffs won25
3Power plays4
10Penalty minutes8
27Hits36
10Blocked shots10
5Giveaways17
7Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.6 xGMIN 2.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 82/100 · #193 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.81 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.

DAL winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).