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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 18, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Edmonton Oilers 0, Colorado Avalanche 6

Away

Edmonton Oilers

0

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.

COL winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM0701006023
COL21621028634

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:09COLJohn-Michael LilesGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Brett Clark · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:00COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Wojtek Wolski, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.59 xG0–2
  3. P2 6:25COLChris StewartAssists: Kyle Quincey, Wojtek Wolski · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–3
  4. P2 18:13COLKyle CumiskeyAssists: Paul Stastny, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
  5. P3 1:28COLKyle CumiskeyPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Chris Stewart · Slap, 0.11 xG0–5
  6. P3 5:47COLMatt DucheneAssists: Brandon Yip, John-Michael Liles · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–6
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 6:33COLChris Durno: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 6:33EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 9:30COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 9:30EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 13:35EDMEthan Moreau: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P1 13:35EDMSheldon Souray: Holding2 min
  7. P1 16:49EDMMarc-Antoine Pouliot: Slashing2 min
  8. P1 19:32COLBrett Clark: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 11:35COLDarcy Tucker: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 0:24COLKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
  11. P3 0:37EDMDustin Penner: Hooking2 min · PPG
  12. P3 1:14EDMShawn Horcoff: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 14:31COLChris Durno: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMCOL
23Shots on goal34
1.5Expected goals3.9
52Shot attempts48
30Faceoffs won30
4Power plays5
17Penalty minutes15
13Hits13
7Blocked shots20
7Giveaways6
6Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.9 xGEDM 1.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1192 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.52 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.

COL winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).