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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 18, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Calgary Flames 1, San Jose Sharks 9

Away

Calgary Flames

1

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

9

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 98% of the time.

SJS winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY0408110122
SJS317317312946

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:07SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Douglas Murray, Jed Ortmeyer · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:20SJSManny MalhotraGWGAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P1 14:34SJSScott NicholAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Rob Blake · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–3
  4. P2 12:36SJSJed OrtmeyerAssists: Scott Nichol, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–4
  5. P2 16:49SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–5
  6. P2 18:36SJSRyane CloweAssists: Scott Nichol, Jed Ortmeyer · Slap, 0.57 xG0–6
  7. P3 4:48SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Joe Pavelski, Manny Malhotra · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–7
  8. P3 7:41CGYRobyn RegehrAssists: Nigel Dawes, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.07 xG1–7
  9. P3 14:06SJSRob BlakePPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brad Staubitz · Slap, 0.06 xG1–8
  10. P3 14:39SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Jay Leach, Patrick Marleau · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–9
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 1:35CGYAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 9:04CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 9:04SJSBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 1:31SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 4:05SJSKent Huskins: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 15:37CGYRene Bourque: Charging2 min · PPG
  7. P3 9:09SJSDevin Setoguchi: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 12:26SJSTorrey Mitchell: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 12:26CGYRene Bourque: Elbowing2 min · PPG
  10. P3 12:26CGYRene Bourque: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 16:43CGYEric Nystrom: High sticking double minor4 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Conroy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYSJS
22Shots on goal46
1.2Expected goals5.9
39Shot attempts69
27Faceoffs won34
3Power plays5
20Penalty minutes16
30Hits34
13Blocked shots9
17Giveaways16
2Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 5.9 xGCGY 1.2 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1067 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.48 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 98% of the time.

SJS winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).