Tue, Jan 19, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New York Rangers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 112 | 15 | 06 | 223 |
| NYR | 39 | 211 | 311 | 831 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26NYRBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Vinny Prospal, Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
- P1 7:05NYRVinny ProspalAssists: Marian Gaborik, Marc Staal · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 17:21TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Steve Downie · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 18:33NYRChris DruryGWGAssists: Ryan Callahan, Erik Christensen · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 5:23NYRDan GirardiAssists: Marian Gaborik, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 15:39NYREnver LisinAssists: Matt Gilroy, Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–5
- P2 17:09TBLAlex TanguayPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 6:04NYRMarc StaalAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–6
- P3 11:11NYRAaron VorosPPAssists: Brian Boyle, Sean Avery · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–7
- P3 16:32NYRChris HigginsAssists: Wade Redden, Matt Gilroy · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–8
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:10NYRAaron Voros: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:10TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 1:18TBLVincent Lecavalier: Interference2 min
- P1 1:42NYREnver Lisin: Interference2 min
- P2 1:00NYRMichal Rozsival: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:52NYRChris Drury: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:30TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:50NYRErik Christensen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:50NYRVinny Prospal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:46TBLZenon Konopka: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:46TBLZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:28TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:28NYRAaron Voros: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:15NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:15TBLJeff Halpern: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:15TBLJeff Halpern: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).