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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 19, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Philadelphia Flyers 5

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 89% of the time.

PHI winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ01021117328
PHI112311114537

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:58PHIJeff CarterUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:16PHIArron AshamAssists: Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:22CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Kristian Huselius · Backhand, 0.47 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:04CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Kristian Huselius, Rick Nash · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–2
  5. P2 11:31PHIJeff CarterUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P2 19:08PHIChris ProngerPPGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
  7. P3 9:12PHIDaniel CarcilloAssists: Ian Laperriere · Snap, 0.05 xG2–5
  8. P3 18:43CBJRick NashPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Kristian Huselius · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 5:00PHIArron Asham: Boarding2 min
  2. P2 2:39PHIIan Laperriere: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 7:45CBJChris Clark: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 10:28PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 10:28CBJMathieu Roy: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 18:58CBJDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 0:45CBJDerick Brassard: Holding2 min
  8. P3 14:06CBJFedor Tyutin: High sticking double minor4 min
  9. P3 17:34PHIDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJPHI
28Shots on goal37
2.5Expected goals5.7
53Shot attempts62
25Faceoffs won35
3Power plays5
15Penalty minutes11
21Hits18
9Blocked shots15
9Giveaways6
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 5.7 xGCBJ 2.5 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHICBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 76/100 · #259 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.24 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 89% of the time.

PHI winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).