Tue, Jan 19, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Detroit Red Wings 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 015 | 116 | 115 | 246 |
| WSH | 03 | 111 | 29 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:17DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 18:05WSHMatt BradleyAssists: Boyd Gordon, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 11:07DETBrian RafalskiAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 13:15WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Jose Theodore · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 14:01WSHDavid SteckelGWGAssists: Alexander Semin, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:14WSHMike Knuble: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:47WSHJeff Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:50DETBrett Lebda: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:36DETDaniel Cleary: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:02WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:30DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:34WSHTomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:40DETTodd Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:07WSHMike Knuble: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).