Skip to content
Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 19, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Chicago Blackhawks 1, Ottawa Senators 4

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

1

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.

OTT winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI07112011130
OTT271615418

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:51OTTZack SmithAssists: Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:31OTTRyan ShannonGWGAssists: Peter Regin, Alex Kovalev · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
  3. P2 6:18CHIMarian HossaSHAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Slap, 0.20 xG1–2
  4. P2 18:05OTTPeter ReginAssists: Chris Neil · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–3
  5. P3 16:45OTTMike FisherPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.21 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 9:50CHIDustin Byfuglien: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 13:43OTTMatt Carkner: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 14:57CHITroy Brouwer: Interference2 min
  4. P1 15:16OTTAlex Kovalev: Slashing2 min
  5. P1 18:05CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 4:35CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 12:12OTTAnton Volchenkov: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 18:32OTTRyan Shannon: Interference2 min
  9. P3 2:04OTTFilip Kuba: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 9:08CHIDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 14:47CHIKris Versteeg: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Fisher
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIOTT
30Shots on goal18
2.4Expected goals1.2
50Shot attempts36
26Faceoffs won28
5Power plays5
12Penalty minutes10
12Hits29
13Blocked shots12
14Giveaways16
10Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 1.2 xGCHI 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 26/100 · #912 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.84 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.

OTT winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).