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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 19, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Buffalo Sabres 4, Anaheim Ducks 5

Away

Buffalo Sabres

4

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.

ANA winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF017311117445
ANA41703110530

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:50ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 1:53ANAEvgeny ArtyukhinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
  3. P1 5:23ANAMike BrownAssists: Evgeny Artyukhin, Steve Eminger · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
  4. P1 10:26ANABobby RyanPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Petteri Nokelainen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–4
  5. P2 0:23BUFTim ConnollyPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.48 xG1–4
  6. P2 0:51BUFClarke MacArthurAssists: Paul Gaustad, Mike Grier · Slap, 0.21 xG2–4
  7. P2 6:12BUFSteve MontadorUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–4
  8. P3 15:53ANATroy BodieGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG3–5
  9. P3 19:07BUFJochen HechtAssists: Jason Pominville, Tim Connolly · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 7:50ANANick Boynton: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 7:50BUFAdam Mair: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 8:10BUFPaul Gaustad: Cross checking2 min
  4. P1 8:40BUFPatrick Lalime: Slashing2 min · PPG
  5. P1 19:33ANAEvgeny Artyukhin: Roughing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 13:14ANASteve Eminger: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 17:31ANATodd Marchant: Holding2 min
  8. P3 1:35ANARyan Getzlaf: Holding2 min
  9. P3 9:07BUFClarke MacArthur: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackANA attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFANA
45Shots on goal30
4.3Expected goals2.9
61Shot attempts42
29Faceoffs won38
4Power plays3
8Penalty minutes10
12Hits27
4Blocked shots9
2Giveaways2
1Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 2.9 xGBUF 4.3 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANABUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 87/100 · #130 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.13 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.

ANA winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).