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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 19, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

San Jose Sharks 5, Los Angeles Kings 1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.

LAK winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS3121517524
LAK08114015137

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:18SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P1 9:38SJSDan BoyleGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P1 16:49SJSRyane CloweAssists: Jed Ortmeyer · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–0
  4. P2 0:44LAKWayne SimmondsAssists: Ryan Smyth, Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–1
  5. P2 13:48SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
  6. P3 11:59SJSRyane ClowePPAssists: Manny Malhotra, Rob Blake · Slap, 0.04 xG5–1
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 4:05LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:13SJSJay Leach: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 7:13LAKWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 7:29SJSDan Boyle: Holding2 min
  5. P2 3:48SJSDouglas Murray: Interference2 min
  6. P2 13:15LAKBrandon Segal: Boarding2 min · PPG
  7. P3 5:16SJSDan Boyle: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 5:16LAKDustin Brown: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 5:16SJSDan Boyle: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 5:16LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 7:32SJSRob Blake: Cross checking2 min
  12. P3 10:25LAKAnze Kopitar: Boarding2 min · PPG
  13. P3 17:02SJSDany Heatley: High sticking double minor4 min
  14. P3 19:12LAKRyan Smyth: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Malhotra
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSLAK
24Shots on goal37
2.2Expected goals3.4
38Shot attempts64
27Faceoffs won27
3Power plays5
16Penalty minutes14
18Hits28
13Blocked shots7
11Giveaways12
7Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 3.4 xGSJS 2.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 26/100 · #914 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.83 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.

LAK winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).