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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 20, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Florida Panthers 0, New Jersey Devils 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.

NJD winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA050809022
NJD01211317232

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 18:30NJDTravis ZajacGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Nick Palmieri · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P3 19:59NJDDean McAmmondENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.44 xG0–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 11:10FLABryan Allen: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 11:56FLABryan McCabe: Holding2 min
  3. P2 19:55NJDRob Niedermayer: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 8:15NJDMike Mottau: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 18:37NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against McAmmond
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLANJD
22Shots on goal32
1.8Expected goals1.9
33Shot attempts58
18Faceoffs won30
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
14Hits27
13Blocked shots7
4Giveaways10
6Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 1.9 xGFLA 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 9/100 · #1128 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.72 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.

NJD winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).