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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 20, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Vancouver Canucks 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (OT)

Away

Vancouver Canucks

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.

EDM winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
VAN180911100328
EDM1121130800233

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:04EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Denis Grebeshkov · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:23VANAlexandre BurrowsPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:10EDMSheldon SourayAssists: Zack Stortini, Marc-Antoine Pouliot · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P3 15:54VANSami SaloPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 7:12VANSteve Bernier: Roughing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 15:49EDMZack Stortini: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 19:12EDMAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 19:12VANTanner Glass: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 7:06EDMShawn Horcoff: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 15:30VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 1:42VANKyle Wellwood: Holding2 min
  8. P3 13:53VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 13:53EDMShawn Horcoff: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 15:47EDMAndrew Cogliano: Holding2 min · PPG
  11. OT 0:53EDMDenis Grebeshkov: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Sedin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANEDM
28Shots on goal33
3.1Expected goals2.2
69Shot attempts53
34Faceoffs won25
4Power plays3
10Penalty minutes12
14Hits18
8Blocked shots26
22Giveaways17
7Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.2 xGVAN 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #428 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.86 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 12% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +44 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.

EDM winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).