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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 21, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Boston Bruins 2

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.

BOS winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ1100728325
BOS112111011234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:11BOSMichael RyderAssists: Trent Whitfield, Miroslav Satan · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:23CBJChris ClarkAssists: Raffi Torres · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P2 6:40BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Daniel Paille, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
  4. P3 7:16CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
  5. P3 18:44CBJR.J. UmbergerPPGWGAssists: Kristian Huselius, Anton Stralman · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 8:10CBJJan Hejda: Holding2 min
  2. P1 15:50CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 15:50BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 14:28BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 3:58CBJAnton Stralman: Interference2 min
  6. P3 8:12BOSMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min
  7. P3 18:29BOSMilan Lucic: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  8. P3 19:58CBJRaffi Torres: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJBOS
25Shots on goal34
2.1Expected goals3.9
40Shot attempts59
29Faceoffs won25
4Power plays2
11Penalty minutes13
20Hits21
16Blocked shots10
2Giveaways4
6Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.9 xGCBJ 2.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 49/100 · #622 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.57 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 19% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.

BOS winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).