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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 21, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

St. Louis Blues 2, Ottawa Senators 3

Away

St. Louis Blues

2

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.

OTT winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL0717115229
OTT11211513330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:09OTTPeter ReginPPAssists: Alex Kovalev, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P2 10:59OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Peter Regin, Alex Kovalev · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P2 18:53STLEric BrewerAssists: David Perron, Andy McDonald · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P3 0:30STLBrad BoyesAssists: Barret Jackman, Roman Polak · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P3 10:29OTTChris PhillipsPPGWGAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Peter Regin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 6:06OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 6:06STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 15:19STLKeith Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 17:54STLDavid Perron: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 3:33OTTChris Neil: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 3:33STLBrad Boyes: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 10:50STLJay McClement: High sticking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 4:46OTTPeter Regin: Holding2 min
  9. P3 8:19OTTAlex Kovalev: Interference2 min
  10. P3 8:55STLT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min · PPG
  11. P3 16:13OTTAlex Kovalev: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Regin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLOTT
29Shots on goal30
1.9Expected goals1.9
53Shot attempts55
35Faceoffs won28
3Power plays4
15Penalty minutes13
33Hits18
16Blocked shots16
11Giveaways15
4Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 1.9 xGSTL 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #432 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.48 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.

OTT winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).