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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 21, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Florida Panthers 1, New York Islanders 2 (SO)

Away

Florida Panthers

1

Final

Shootout

Home

New York Islanders

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.

NYI winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
FLA01411105040134
NYI06116012022236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:13FLANathan HortonAssists: Stephen Weiss, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 11:39NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Dustin Kohn, Bruno Gervais · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
  2. 2. FLA Rostislav Olesz stopped
  3. 3. NYI Rob Schremp scored
  4. 4. FLA Michael Frolik stopped
  5. 5. NYI Matt Moulson scored
Penalties (4)
  1. P3 4:19NYIJon Sim: Slashing2 min
  2. P3 8:29NYIJon Sim: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P3 13:37FLARadek Dvorak: High sticking2 min
  4. OT 1:36NYIBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Weiss
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLANYI
34Shots on goal36
3.6Expected goals3.4
69Shot attempts79
24Faceoffs won30
3Power plays1
2Penalty minutes6
26Hits16
28Blocked shots21
15Giveaways18
8Takeaways19

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 3.4 xGFLA 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 37/100 · #773 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.28 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 32% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.

NYI winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).