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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 21, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

New York Rangers 0, Philadelphia Flyers 2

Away

New York Rangers

0

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.

PHI winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR0601107024
PHI1121906227

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:10PHIJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Chris Pronger, Ray Emery · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P2 19:57PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
Penalties (15)
  1. P2 5:43PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  2. P2 5:43NYRMarian Gaborik: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 5:43NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 5:43NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  5. P2 5:43PHIOle-Kristian Tollefsen: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 6:57PHIScott Hartnell: High sticking double minor4 min
  7. P2 9:19NYRErik Christensen: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 12:18PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 12:18NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 19:00PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 19:00NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min · PPG
  12. P2 19:01NYRMarian Gaborik: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 0:03NYRAaron Voros: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 0:03PHIArron Asham: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 19:52PHIBlair Betts: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Betts
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRPHI
24Shots on goal27
1.8Expected goals3.2
47Shot attempts61
29Faceoffs won24
3Power plays3
28Penalty minutes28
29Hits25
18Blocked shots12
5Giveaways5
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.2 xGNYR 1.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHINYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 0/100 · #1230 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.51 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.

PHI winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).