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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 21, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.

TBL winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
TOR04181703222
TBL071711513332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:05TORIan WhitePPAssists: Phil Kessel, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P2 11:46TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Kurtis Foster · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P3 9:08TORMatt StajanPPAssists: Niklas Hagman, Nikolay Kulemin · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
  4. P3 16:11TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–2
  5. OT 4:50TBLMartin St. LouisPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Vincent Lecavalier · Slap, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (22)
  1. P1 0:56TORWayne Primeau: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 4:15TBLMatt Walker: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:15TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 13:56TORJamal Mayers: Slashing2 min
  5. P1 13:56TORColton Orr: Instigator2 min
  6. P1 13:56TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 13:56TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
  8. P1 13:56TBLMatt Walker: Fighting5 min
  9. P1 17:00TBLStephane Veilleux: Hooking2 min
  10. P1 19:25TBLPaul Szczechura: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 5:42TBLAndrej Meszaros: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  12. P2 9:41TORTomas Kaberle: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 0:52TBLMattias Ohlund: Holding2 min
  14. P3 6:37TBLMatt Smaby: Hooking2 min
  15. P3 6:37TORNikolay Kulemin: Holding the stick2 min
  16. P3 8:12TBLSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min · PPG
  17. P3 9:21TBLSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min
  18. P3 14:30TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
  19. P3 14:30TORWayne Primeau: Roughing2 min · PPG
  20. P3 15:44TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Boarding2 min
  21. P3 16:11TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  22. OT 4:16TORJason Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Stamkos
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORTBL
22Shots on goal32
1.6Expected goals3.8
47Shot attempts58
29Faceoffs won26
6Power plays7
38Penalty minutes26
21Hits17
16Blocked shots15
5Giveaways11
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 3.8 xGTOR 1.6 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #158 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.29 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 13% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.

TBL winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).