Thu, Jan 21, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 115 | 29 | 310 | 634 |
| PIT | 113 | 212 | 013 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:22PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 14:24WSHMike KnubleAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Shaone Morrisonn · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–1
- P2 2:22WSHEric FehrAssists: Jason Chimera, Shaone Morrisonn · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P2 2:50PITNick JohnsonAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 10:46PITKris LetangAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 16:25WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Brendan Morrison, Mike Knuble · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 2:32WSHTomas FleischmannGWGAssists: Alexander Semin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 3:25WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 19:34WSHAlex OvechkinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:48WSHShaone Morrisonn: Holding2 min
- P1 18:10WSHAlexander Semin: Holding2 min
- P2 8:45WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:49PITKris Letang: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:59PITBill Guerin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:36WSHNicklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Steckel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).