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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 21, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Detroit Red Wings 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)

Away

Detroit Red Wings

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Minnesota Wild

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.

MIN winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DET11107210013429
MIN0311326082330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:52DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P2 12:34MINRobbie EarlAssists: Shane Hnidy · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
  3. P3 2:28DETPatrick EavesAssists: Darren Helm, Derek Meech · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
  4. P3 9:03DETDrew MillerAssists: Derek Meech, Daniel Cleary · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–1
  5. P3 13:48MINMartin HavlatAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–2
  6. P3 14:48MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Shane Hnidy · Slap, 0.15 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
  2. 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
  3. 3. MIN Guillaume Latendresse stopped
  4. 4. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
  5. 5. MIN Owen Nolan scored
  6. 6. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
  7. 7. MIN Martin Havlat stopped
  8. 8. DET Ville Leino stopped
  9. 9. MIN Brent Burns stopped
  10. 10. DET Daniel Cleary stopped
  11. 11. MIN Antti Miettinen stopped
  12. 12. DET Patrick Eaves stopped
  13. 13. MIN Marek Zidlicky scored
  14. 14. DET Valtteri Filppula scored
  15. 15. MIN Eric Belanger stopped
  16. 16. DET Drew Miller scored
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 5:26DETVille Leino: Interference2 min
  2. P1 14:01MINCal Clutterbuck: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 15:58MINBrent Burns: Holding2 min
  4. P3 3:44MINAntti Miettinen: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackMIN attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETMIN
29Shots on goal30
3.8Expected goals2.8
63Shot attempts53
15Faceoffs won31
3Power plays1
2Penalty minutes6
23Hits27
12Blocked shots13
11Giveaways13
4Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.8 xGDET 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #156 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.14 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.

MIN winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).