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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 21, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Nashville Predators 2, Phoenix Coyotes 4

Away

Nashville Predators

2

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.

PHX winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH01529018242
PHX0411237423

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:49PHXMatthew LombardiAssists: Shane Doan, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P2 13:57NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Jason Arnott, Steve Sullivan · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P2 14:37NSHMartin EratUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
  4. P3 4:02PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Shane Doan, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P3 13:22PHXScottie UpshallGWGAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
  6. P3 14:27PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Martin Hanzal, Jim Vandermeer · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (2)
  1. P2 4:10PHXLauri Korpikoski: Hooking2 min
  2. P3 10:39PHXAdrian Aucoin: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHPHX
42Shots on goal23
2.4Expected goals2.3
69Shot attempts54
23Faceoffs won32
2Power plays0
0Penalty minutes4
24Hits25
20Blocked shots19
6Giveaways2
6Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 2.3 xGNSH 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 51/100 · #594 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.61 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.

PHX winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).