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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 21, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Chicago Blackhawks 3, Calgary Flames 1

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 71% of the time.

CGY winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI01111126328
CGY051807120

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 9:14CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 18:31CGYJamie LundmarkPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–1
  3. P3 5:52CHIBen EagerGWGAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Colin Fraser · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:22CHIDuncan KeithENAssists: Marian Hossa, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 7:39CGYMark Giordano: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
  2. P2 3:32CHIBrian Campbell: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 8:09CGYCurtis Glencross: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P2 12:10CGYDaymond Langkow: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 17:06CHIMarian Hossa: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sharp won the faceoff against Conroy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHICGY
28Shots on goal20
3.5Expected goals2.3
49Shot attempts51
29Faceoffs won23
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
10Hits9
17Blocked shots11
4Giveaways10
10Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.3 xGCHI 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #836 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.17 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 71% of the time.

CGY winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).