Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 21, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Dallas Stars 3, Vancouver Canucks 4

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.

VAN winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL1711016323
VAN1511127423

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:16VANMason RaymondAssists: Ryan Kesler, Brad Lukowich · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:48DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Karlis Skrastins, James Neal · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:17DALToby PetersenSHAssists: Tom Wandell · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:00VANAlexandre BurrowsSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
  5. P3 5:05VANChristian EhrhoffAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
  6. P3 16:31VANKyle WellwoodGWGAssists: Steve Bernier, Brad Lukowich · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
  7. P3 19:57DALTrevor DaleyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 19:23DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 6:03DALMark Fistric: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 6:03VANSteve Bernier: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 6:51VANKyle Wellwood: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 8:36DALSteve Ott: Boarding2 min
  6. P2 16:15DALTom Wandell: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 17:06VANSami Salo: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Wandell won the faceoff against Kesler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALVAN
23Shots on goal23
2.0Expected goals1.7
41Shot attempts47
21Faceoffs won29
2Power plays3
11Penalty minutes9
18Hits20
17Blocked shots12
1Giveaways3
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 1.7 xGDAL 2.0 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 57/100 · #529 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.55 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.

VAN winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).