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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 21, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Anaheim Ducks 1, San Jose Sharks 3

Away

Anaheim Ducks

1

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.

SJS winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA0100918127
SJS0721315325

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:47SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicPPAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P2 16:34SJSRob BlakeGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Deflected, 0.06 xG0–2
  3. P3 1:15ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Scott Niedermayer · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:54SJSPatrick MarleauENAssists: Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 0:10SJSJoe Thornton: Interference2 min
  2. P1 1:02ANAMatt Beleskey: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 3:53ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 3:53SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 6:50SJSBrad Staubitz: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P1 10:29SJSBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 10:29ANANick Boynton: Fighting5 min
  8. P1 18:52ANATroy Bodie: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  9. P2 4:45SJSDany Heatley: High sticking2 min
  10. P2 7:34ANAJames Wisniewski: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 17:31ANACorey Perry: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 3:22ANAScott Niedermayer: Holding2 min
  13. P3 9:57SJSJed Ortmeyer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  14. P3 16:50SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANASJS
27Shots on goal25
2.0Expected goals3.8
52Shot attempts62
20Faceoffs won35
5Power plays6
22Penalty minutes20
22Hits24
19Blocked shots15
9Giveaways14
6Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.8 xGANA 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 21/100 · #967 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.07 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.

SJS winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).