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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 22, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Montréal Canadiens 3, New Jersey Devils 1

Away

Montréal Canadiens

3

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.

NJD winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL1141515324
NJD11206014132

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:16NJDZach PariseAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Mike Mottau · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:10MTLBenoit PouliotAssists: Scott Gomez, Travis Moen · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:35MTLMathieu DarcheGWGAssists: Brian Gionta, Roman Hamrlik · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P3 11:53MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Andrei Markov, Mathieu Darche · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 2:54MTLGlen Metropolit: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 8:26MTLMichael Cammalleri: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 10:42NJDRob Niedermayer: Interference2 min
  4. P3 2:05NJDMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
  5. P3 2:05MTLMatt D'Agostini: Fighting5 min
  6. P3 8:51NJDZach Parise: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 8:51MTLBenoit Pouliot: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 12:19NJDBen Walter: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Gomez
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLNJD
24Shots on goal32
1.7Expected goals2.1
40Shot attempts57
19Faceoffs won22
2Power plays2
11Penalty minutes11
21Hits15
11Blocked shots11
6Giveaways8
11Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.1 xGMTL 1.7 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 20/100 · #975 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.04 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.

NJD winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).