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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 22, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Dallas Stars 4, Edmonton Oilers 3

Away

Dallas Stars

4

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.

EDM winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL2181519432
EDM111114114339

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:00DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Steve Ott · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:33DALMike ModanoPPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Brad Richards · Slap, 0.32 xG2–0
  3. P1 13:12EDMRyan PotulnyPPAssists: Robert Nilsson, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
  4. P2 11:24DALJamie BennAssists: Steve Ott, Brian Sutherby · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
  5. P2 19:41EDMSam GagnerAssists: Tom Gilbert, Dustin Penner · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
  6. P3 18:58EDMSam GagnerAssists: Robert Nilsson, Ryan Potulny · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
  7. P3 19:37DALJames NealGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 2:24EDMJason Strudwick: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:24DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 6:41EDMShawn Horcoff: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P1 6:41EDMFernando Pisani: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 9:29EDMSam Gagner: Holding2 min
  6. P1 11:23EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
  7. P1 12:47DALKrys Barch: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P1 18:11DALSteve Ott: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 4:31DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
  10. P2 5:24DALSteve Ott: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pouliot won the faceoff against Benn
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALEDM
32Shots on goal39
3.7Expected goals3.2
53Shot attempts78
30Faceoffs won29
4Power plays4
13Penalty minutes13
15Hits29
22Blocked shots9
16Giveaways14
10Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.2 xGDAL 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #116 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.21 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +48 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.

EDM winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).