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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 23, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Carolina Hurricanes 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.

PHI winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR19010116235
PHI11326111430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:05PHIDaniel CarcilloUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:00CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
  3. P2 14:11PHIChris ProngerPPAssists: Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P2 15:56PHIJeff CarterGWGAssists: Arron Asham, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
  5. P3 1:21CARRod Brind'AmourPPAssists: Sergei Samsonov · Snap, 0.21 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:59PHIJeff CarterENAssists: Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.67 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 5:49PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 5:49CARAndrew Alberts: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 9:35CARAaron Ward: Clipping2 min
  4. P1 17:38PHIDarroll Powe: Roughing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 8:24PHIDaniel Carcillo: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 13:26PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 13:26CARTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min · PPG
  8. P2 14:08CARPatrick Dwyer: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 19:34PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 6:10CARStephane Yelle: Boarding2 min
  11. P3 10:46PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 10:46CARJoni Pitkanen: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 12:26PHIChris Pronger: Hooking2 min
  14. P3 17:48PHIBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Sutter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARPHI
35Shots on goal30
4.1Expected goals4.0
58Shot attempts51
28Faceoffs won35
5Power plays3
18Penalty minutes22
19Hits31
11Blocked shots12
9Giveaways7
5Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 4.0 xGCAR 4.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHICAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #657 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.34 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.

PHI winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).