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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 23, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

New York Rangers 0, Montréal Canadiens 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.

MTL winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR01307012032
MTL110411110631

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:05MTLScott GomezGWGAssists: Jaroslav Spacek, Hal Gill · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:35MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Jaroslav Spacek · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:37MTLMaxim LapierreAssists: Mathieu Darche · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–3
  4. P2 6:17MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Brian Gionta, Tomas Plekanec · Snap, 0.30 xG0–4
  5. P2 10:59MTLBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–5
  6. P3 9:28MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–6
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 0:31MTLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 0:31NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 9:00MTLRoman Hamrlik: Interference2 min
  4. P1 9:00NYRAaron Voros: Charging2 min
  5. P2 1:07MTLJosh Gorges: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 1:16NYRMarian Gaborik: Interference2 min
  7. P2 9:49NYRAaron Voros: Interference2 min · PPG
  8. P3 3:54NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 8:44NYRMichal Rozsival: Holding2 min · PPG
  10. P3 8:44NYRBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 12:19MTLRyan O'Byrne: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 12:19MTLRyan O'Byrne: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 12:19NYRAaron Voros: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Lapierre
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRMTL
32Shots on goal31
2.9Expected goals3.4
58Shot attempts48
22Faceoffs won22
2Power plays5
19Penalty minutes13
24Hits16
7Blocked shots11
12Giveaways13
1Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.4 xGNYR 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1205 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.45 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.

MTL winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).